Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 6

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Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024


000
WTNT42 KNHC 122022
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024

Tropical Depression Seven appears somewhat more organized on
satellite imagery this afternoon, with a compact circulation
and a couple bursts of deeper convection near the center, though it
has been exposed for portions of the day. Subjective and objective
Dvorak numbers indicate the system is close to becoming a tropical
storm. However, the initial intensity will stay 30 kt, at the lower
end of the estimates, until we get a little more definitive
evidence of a tropical storm.

The cyclone continues on a west-northwestward heading, and the
general motion is expected to continue over the next 2-3 days. The
forward speed should gradually slow as the subtropical ridge to the
north of the system weakens. Track guidance diverges considerably
early next week, related to uncertainties with an amplifying trough
over the north-central Atlantic Ocean and another ridge centered
northeast of the Leeward Islands. The GFS-based guidance has
trended much farther west and faster, showing a weakening system at
long range. However, the ECMWF and its ensemble members still show
a risk of a stronger system, so the forecast will stay on the
northeastern side of the track guidance. The new NHC forecast is
faster and left of the previous one owing to the bulk of the
guidance shifts during this cycle.

While environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for gradual
strengthening, with low-moderate vertical wind shear and
marginally warm SSTs, intensity guidance is even lower than the
last cycle. Slight strengthening seems most probable within the
marginal environment, and the forecast continues to show a 45-kt
peak in 5 days. There is also the potential for greater
strengthening beyond what is shown early next week as the cyclone
will be in an environment characterized by lower shear, warmer SSTs
around 28C, slightly more instability, but plentiful dry air aloft.
The latest intensity forecast is very similar to the previous
one, on the high side of the guidance envelope.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 18.3N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 18.9N 37.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 19.8N 43.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 19.9N 44.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 19.8N 46.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 19.8N 48.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 20.3N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hurley/Blake

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