Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 5

All ah we da Belizeans!
Staff member
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

WTNT43 KNHC 022039

Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

Observations from the Hurricane Hunters around midday indicated
winds to tropical storm force over the southwestern quadrant, so the
cyclone was named. Since that time, scatterometer data suggested
that the wind field has become a little more symmetrical. The
current intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, which is a
little above the subjective Dvorak estimates. Some strengthening
could occur overnight since the cyclone is in a conducive
atmospheric and oceanic environment. However, it now seems likely
that the system will make landfall over eastern Mexico on Wednesday
which should cause weakening. Assuming that the center emerges over
the Gulf of Mexico later in the week, some re-intensification is
forecast. However, stronger shear over the northern Gulf should
limit the increase in strength. The official intensity forecast is
close to the latest LGEM guidance.

Satellite and radar imagery from Mexico indicate that the cyclone
is moving slowly southward, or around 170/3 kt. The system appears
to be rotating within a larger cyclonic gyre centered over eastern
Mexico. The global models show that Cristobal will be trapped
between two high pressure areas and have little overall movement for
the next few days. However, the slow, cyclonically looping
movement of the cyclone should take the center over eastern Mexico
on Wednesday and Thursday. Later in the week, increasing southerly
flow should steer the system northward over the Gulf of Mexico and
near the northern Gulf coast by the weekend. The official track
forecast lies near the latest dynamical model consensus, and is
roughly in the middle of the track guidance suite. Given the spread
in this guidance, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in
the NHC forecast at days 4-5.

Key Messages:

1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and
El Salvador, and Cristobal is expected to bring additional heavy
rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El
Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides. Refer to products from your national meteorological
service for more information.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of
Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall,
and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast
from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to
determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.


INIT 02/2100Z 19.1N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 18.8N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 18.4N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/0600Z 18.2N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1800Z 18.5N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0600Z 19.1N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 05/1800Z 20.4N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/1800Z 23.7N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/1800Z 28.0N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER

Forecaster Pasch