Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 3

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Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Oct 19 2020


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WTNT42 KNHC 192051
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 PM AST Mon Oct 19 2020

Earlier this afternoon, Epsilon had a hybrid-type structure in
satellite imagery, with a partially exposed center and a broken
convective band that wrapped around the northern and eastern sides
of the storm. However, recent satellite imagery shows a small
convective burst near the center that gives Epsilon a more tropical
appearance. ASCAT-B/C passes from this morning indicate the system
has a large and asymmetric wind field, with 34-kt winds extending
over 200 nm away from the center in the northern semicircle. This
is, in part, attributable to the environmental pressure gradient
with a strong high pressure ridge centered east of the Canadian
Maritimes. The initial intensity is raised to 40 kt with this
advisory, supported by a T2.5 subjective Dvorak classification from
TAFB and a 37-kt objective 14Z SATCON estimate.

Warm sea-surface temperatures and moderate southwesterly vertical
wind shear should allow for gradual strengthening over the next day
or so. By 36-48 h, a period of weaker wind shear should allow
Epsilon to continue strengthening while becoming better organized
and eventually developing a more symmetric wind field. There is
still increasing spread in the intensity guidance beyond 48 h, with
a split between the stronger statistical-dynamical guidance and the
weaker regional hurricane models. Given these mixed signals, little
change was made to the intensity forecast with this advisory. The
official NHC intensity forecast lies on the higher end of the
guidance consensus, but remains lower than SHIPS/LGEM. The official
forecast now calls for Epsilon to become a hurricane on Wednesday.

Epsilon remains nearly stationary as it meanders over the central
Atlantic under weak steering currents. The cyclone should begin
moving slowly northward tonight, then turn northwestward with a
faster forward speed through midweek as a mid- to upper-level ridge
is expected to build to the north and northeast of Epsilon. The
current NHC forecast track shows Epsilon making its closest approach
to Bermuda on Friday. By this weekend, the cyclone should begin
turning northward ahead of an upper-level trough expected to move
off the northeastern U.S. coast. Most of the track guidance is
tightly clustered for the next several days, except for the latest
HWRF. The track guidance has shifted slightly to the right, and so
the NHC track forecast has been adjusted similarly to reflect the
latest guidance consensus.

Key Message:

1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when
it approaches Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to
determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near
the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall,
and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely
monitor the progress of Epsilon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 25.5N 55.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 25.9N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 27.0N 56.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 28.1N 57.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 28.8N 59.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 29.8N 60.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 31.1N 61.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 32.8N 62.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 35.5N 62.3W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown

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