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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 29 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Eastern Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
extending from the Windward Islands west-northwestward for several
hundred miles. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next
week while the disturbance moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the
Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
2. Western Atlantic:
Satellite data indicate that a well-defined low pressure area
located about 160 miles west of Bermuda is currently producing a
limited amount of shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions are forecast to remain only marginally conducive, and
any additional development should be slow to occur over the next
day or so. By late Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to
become even less favorable, and the low is expected to begin
interacting with an approaching frontal system. Therefore,
development after that time is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Beven
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